Environmental Impact of Massive Heat-Pump Introduction Considering the Dynamic Response of the Overall Electric Generation System

To evaluate the environmental impact of a massive heat-pump introduction the simulation tool PROMIX, that models the overall electricity generation system, is used. Two types of scenarios are simulated. In a first scenario, the reference scenario, no additional heat pumps are installed. In the second scenario, the classic heating systems are (partly) replaced by heat pumps. For the heat-pump installation, three cases are looked at: direct heat-pump heating (COP: 2.5); accumulation heat-pump heating (COP: 5); direct heat-pump heating supplemented with direct resistance heating. To compare heat-pump heating to resistive electrical heating, also two cases with resistive electrical heating are studied. The results of the simulations reveal that the impact of massive heat-pump introduction is indeed very favourable for a reduction of CO2 emissions. The reason is twofold: the high COP of the heat pump and the need for the commissioning of new power plants. The first reason reduces the required kWhe for every kWhth, and the second reason allows the newly built plants to operate during the entire year and not only for the heat pump, thereby “pushing aside” older coal fired plants. Of all heat-pump cases considered, the case where heat pumps are used for direct heating is the most favourable, followed by the accumulation heating option. The mixed case, 50% heat pump and 50% direct resistive heating occupies an intermediary position with respect to direct electric heating. It should be emphasized that for all electric cases considered, the emissions due to the avoided fossil-fuel heating should be subtracted.