Forecasting indices of small-scale energy technologies

The study of prospective techno-economic indices has been performed in Melentiev Energy Systems Institute with reference to stationary small-scale energy technologies. It provides estimates of current average rates of their specific cost change. The technologies considered include reciprocating engines, steam and gas turbines, fuel cells, and some their combinations below 30 MWe fuelled with natural gas, coal, and biomass. A comparison is made with wind and small hydro sources. For the majority of technologies the specific cost decreases at a rate of 2 to 14% over 10 years. In combination with the current average costs this allows to forecast likely structure of small-scale technologies up to 2030. The implications are discussed. They differ for West European countries and Russia. The major difference is the tendency to raise electrical efficiency, which is notably less topical in Russia. An inference is drawn that the most likely viable application of fuel cells is the combination with gas microturbines. The technologies of solid fuel gasification stay more viable than fuel cell options up to 2030. Though, their competition may be influenced appreciably by carbon sequestration policy and fuel supply infrastructure.