An Analysis of the CO2 Emissions Mitigation Potential from Electricity Production Industry in Turkey

The aim of this research is to assess the CO2 emissions reduction potential of Turkey’s electricity sector. We employ the two scenarios based on the long range energy alternative planning system (LEAP) model to simulate different approaches to represent the current energy situation and to develop forecasts under certain assumptions in electricity sector. LEAP is an energy planning model covers energy demand, transformation and supply. In this study, current fuel specific emission factors for lignite, hard coal and import coal are calculated. Emission factors for natural gas, fuel oil, diesel and naphtha are based on IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) methodology. The electricity supply scenarios setting the year 2006 as the base year were simulated up to 2020. The scenarios are baseline scenario and new policy scenario including renewable. Scenarios are based on bottom-up approaches including different kinds of power plants such as coal-fired, natural gas-fired, fuel oil-fired, and fuel and energy intensity of each fuel. The results imply that energy consumption and CO2 emission in Turkey’s electricity production sector will rise rapidly in all scenarios until 2020. However, through structural adjustment in Turkey’s electricity sector and through implementing technical mitigation measures, CO2 abatement under the scenarios given above during the target period can be achieved.