Scenario Analysis for Optimal Allocation of China’s Electricity Production System

Electricity production is an important source of CO2 emissions in China. This paper analyzes different scenarios for optimal allocation of China’s electricity production system in 2020 to meet different CO2 mitigation targets through using a multi-objective model and a fuzzy multi-objective optimization linger programming method. The results suggest that under low CO2 reduction target (r=35%), the fuel power plant should be highly developed besides coal-fired conventional plants, which in fact, is impossible to form a fuel-driven power plant structure in China. When the CO2 reduction target is increased to 40% or 45%, natural gas combined cycle power plants should be developed vigorously. The coal-fired conventional power plants, hydropower plants and fuel power plants should play a lesser role in the electricity generation in 2020. A diverse generation mix should be formed, and natural gas combined cycle power plants should account a large proportion. It is noteworthy that higher emission reduction targets don’t cause greater generating cost. It’s necessary for China to adjust its power generation structure from traditional coal-driven power plants to a diverse generation mix especially the development of plants using a variety of clean energy such as natural gas and hydropower. In the context of rapid economy growth, China's power industry must develop strict CO2 reduction targets, and emission reduction technology should be promoted in large-scale in China’s electricity sector, as it does not lead to a higher increase in generating costs.