Electricity Demand and Supply Systems with New Energy and Environmental Policies in Germany

With the introduction of the Energy Concept 2010 the German Government set itself ambitious targets for energy and climate policy. First, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are to be cut by at least 80% up to 2050 compared to 1990 levels. Second, renewables are to supply 80% of electricity as opposed to the 80% of electricity currently provided by fossil fuels and nuclear energy. Third, energy consumption is to be reduced by 25% up to 2050, as compared to 2008. In addition, due to the Fukushima disaster, Germany decided to abandon nuclear energy altogether by 2022. This paper focuses on the energy security and climate change mitigation for Germany by considering the energy efficiency, renewable energy and CCS technology as instruments and develops scenarios using the LEAP energy model. The results show that if the maximum energy saving potential and 80% renewable electricity target is applied, the final energy consumption decreases from 9312 PJ in 2010 to 5298 PJ in 2050, a decrease of around 40%. In this scenario, CO2 emission is reduced to 327 Mt CO2-eq in 2050 from 937 Mt CO2-eq in 2010, which is a decrease of approximate 65%.