Risk assessment About PV panels installation (Saudi Arabia – Case study)

This thesis is concerned with the risk assessment analysis of PV systems in the Saudi Arabian region. A primary concern regarding this assessment is to define the challenges and issues that can face PV panels operating in the region, primarily the harsh weather conditions encountered. The methodology of this assessment has been outlined in four main steps: (i) simulation of PV modules as a function of time, temperature, dust and humidity, (ii) Monte Carlo analysis carried out according to the Saudi Arabian weather conditions, to find the probability distributions of failure occurrences, (iii) Risk assessment for internal and external risks expected, and finally (ix) propose necessary management strategies for PV systems installed in Saudi Arabia. The results obtained from the risk assessment shows the failure modes expected in PV system, primarily; cracks, corrosion and discolorations, all due to high temperature, dust and humidity. Key results show that, on average, the number of sun hours in Saudi Arabia is around 3,000 hours per annum and after about 5,200 hours of exposure to specific conditions (temperature, humidity and dust) the PV panel will be totally degraded. As a result, under these conditions, PV systems installed in Saudi Arabia will have approximately 2 years of life - this is a relatively short period. However, when only considering the temperature effect, the lifetime of the PV modules increases to 8 - 10 years. Thus it is essential that the input considerations for the failure mode assessment are clearly stipulated as it has a huge influence on system performance totally i.e. the lifetime. Further conclusions from the work presented is that the overall risk associated with the installation of PV systems in Saudi Arabia is low to average; hence it is possible to setup PV systems in the region with a medium risk. These risks can be further reduced following the proposed risk mitigation steps outlined in the thesis. Several recommendations have been proposed for each of the failure modes studied. These recommendations should be taken into account to improve future work in this field of research and in particular for PV system installation in Saudi Arabia.