Short-term impacts of Russia-Ukraine conflict on the European Union's electricity production from fossil fuels, nuclear, and renewables

A substantial portion of Russia's energy production is used to meet European countries energy demand. Since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the European energy industry, which is still highly reliant on Russian oil and gas, has faced major disruptions. The main objective of this research and analysis work was to establish the percentage change in the energy generating mix for a group of European nations (Macedonia, Finland, Latvia, Bulgaria, Germany, Italy, Poland, France, Netherlands, and Romania) during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The European countries were picked based on their share of Russian gas supplies (10% -100%).The analysis included electricity generation using fossil fuels, nuclear, and renewables. During the first month of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the percentage change in total electrical loads, total generation, renewables, fossil fuels, and nuclear generation, renewables share, CO2 emissions, and the average day-ahead price of electricity were compared to data from the same period the previous year. According to the findings, the total electricity generation declined throughout the crisis by 4.7, 10.6, 19.8, 6, 32.3, and 0.1% for Macedonia, Finland, Latvia, France, Netherlands, and Romania, respectively. The overall amount of electricity generated by natural gas fell sharply by 72.5, 99.2, 26.5, 8.1, 0.2, 42.3, and 4.3% for Finland, Latvia, Germany, France, Netherlands, and Romania. It was noted that the proportion of Russian gas supplies to Finland, Latvia, Germany, France, Netherlands, and Romania represented respectively 94, 93, 49, 24, 11, and 10%. It was apparent that the countries with the highest share of natural gas supplied by Russia have experienced the greatest fall in electricity generation from natural gas. However, except for Finland and Latvia, all the examined countries saw a rise in coal-fired energy generation ranging from 0.7 to 112.7 percent. This will have a detrimental impact on the environment since greenhouse gas emissions will rise as coal power output increases. The results also revealed a significant increase in the average day ahead price of electricity for all the examined countries ranging from 105.5 to 474.6 percent. The findings of this study on the short-term repercussions of Russia's conflict with Ukraine underline the need for policymakers to speed up the transition to clean energy. During crises such as COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, more resilient power systems based on local resources, investments in renewable energy, and a reduction in reliance on fossil fuel imports are required.