Utilisation of digital twins for community heat decarbonisation

Decarbonisation of the heating sector is critical in achieving the ambitious targets for net-zero carbon emissions that have been set by many countries around the world. While heat pumps offer a promising solution to reduce carbon emissions from heating, their large-scale deployment could strain the energy system by increasing electricity demand and challenging the maximum power capabilities of the low-voltage network. Therefore, it is crucial to explore innovative solutions to manage this challenge and support the rapid deployment of heat pumps. This paper explored the potential of digital twins to support the decarbonisation of heating at a community level. A digital model of the Trent Basin housing development in Nottingham, UK was used to simulate domestic heat demands. The modelled demands were validated using real data from the houses, and multiple scenarios for deploying heat pumps were simulated to determine the impact of full heat decarbonisation on the low-voltage substation that serves the community. The research demonstrated that an unmanaged, large-scale deployment of heat pumps would likely challenge the maximum power capabilities of low-voltage substations. An issue that would be further exacerbated by the growth of other demands for electricity such as electric vehicles. The paper highlights the potential of digital twins to help mitigate this issue by supporting decision-making and the development of control strategies to help manage the demand. Areas for further research to optimise the use of these technologies in the future are also identified.