Forecasting Energy Consumption of China Based on Grey System Theory

Based on the actual energy consumption of China from 1998 to 2006, the GM (1,1) forecasting models for the total energy, coal energy and clean energy consumption of China are established successfully, with an precision check-up thereafter. The result shows the three forecasting models are all in first precision level, which is suitable for simulating and forecasting the original data sequences of the energy consumption characterized by grey type. It is known from the result that the energy consumption of China is at the exponential growth rate. From 2007 to 2012, the total energy, coal energy and clean energy consumption of China will increase by 13.19%, 13.78% and 14.29% respectively; and in the energy consumption structure, the proportion of the coal energy and clean energy consumption will increase by 0.33% and 0.65% respectively. The GM (1,1) models predict this trend and show the proportion of the clean energy in the total energy consumption and its increment speed is escalating in China. This conforms to the future sustainable multiple clean energy consumption strategy of the world based mainly on coal, also provides a reference for China to solve the problems of energy supply shortage and environmental pollution.