An Approach with a Business as Usual Scenario for Electricity Sector: Electricity Demand in Cameroon

Energy in general and electricity in particular are key factors in the economic growth of a nation. In Cameroon, the electricity sector is inefficient with a rate of electrification of 22 %. The Low, Median and High scenarios have been implemented in order to project the future energy evolution, for defining effective policies but the problem remains. This article presents a projection in Cameroon electricity demand up to 2020, using a Business as Usual (BaU) scenario; often consider as a "without policy" scenario. The method used in this study is based on the analysis of the evolution in the past decade (2001-2010) of production and consumption data; this enables to make a projection on electricity production in the BaU scenario up to 2020. From 2001 to 2010, we note an evolution of 642 MW and 2024 GWh of electrical power installed and total electricity generated respectively. Following the BaU scenario, we note an increase of 55.10% in the electrical power installed and 30.46% GWh of total electricity generated from 2010 to 2020. From the study, it is possible to use BaU scenario out of its domain of predilection (CO2 emission projection). This paper concludes with a suggestion to use a without policy scenario with a clear based year as definition of BaU.