Determining utilisation rate of renewable energy resources for future energy consumption In Turkey

Renewable energy sources have become an important research topic with the exhaustion of limited resources in our world and the increasing awareness about environmental pollution. It has become an inevitable reality for our world to notice renewable energy sources. In addition to environmental pollution, issues such as the greenhouse effect caused by the carbon components released into the atmosphere causing climate changes or the deterioration of the ecological balance also emphasise the contribution and importance of renewable energy sources. One of the important methods to ensure the efficient use of energy is to forecast energy demand. For the pricing of energy, demand forecast values are used. The accuracy of the estimation method is very important in the current climate and for successful determination of energy imports and exports, national energy production capacity and economic added value for different types of energy. With the help of demand forecasting with a high accuracy rate, significant contributions can be made to the country with successful planning in the energy market. The future of energy consumption, which can be predicted monthly, is a significant criterion that will also determine the need for renewable energy sources in Turkey. Thanks to this evaluation, it will be possible for our country to develop a sustainable energy strategy. The aim of this study is to estimate Turkey's total energy demand and to determine the rate of use of renewable energy resources for this demand. In the study, ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), one of the time series analysis methods, was used to predict monthly electricity consumption and monthly electricity production with renewable energy sources. As a result of the study, it was found that 52.29% of electricity consumption in July 2022 could be met by electricity generation obtained from renewable energy sources.